1. Macroeconomic Landscape and the Systemic Crisis of the Labor Market
The Ukrainian labor market in 2025–2026 entered a phase of deep and unprecedented structural transformation, where a chronic talent shortage became not just a temporary phenomenon, but a key factor constraining economic recovery and business scaling. Market research indicates that the shortage of workers has reached its highest level on record. In 2026, between 67% and 78% of Ukrainian enterprises openly declared an acute shortage of personnel, which is a significant jump compared to 60% a year earlier. At the same time, the situation with recruiting even without special training has worsened, reaching 38.4% of companies experiencing difficulties in this segment.
This shortage coexists with a paradoxical situation: the average unemployment rate in 2025 was 11.3% (a significant improvement compared to 18.2% in 2023), yet thousands of specialists cannot find work, while businesses cannot fill vacancies. This indicates a colossal gap between the available qualifications of job seekers and the actual needs of high-tech manufacturing. Demographic pressure on the labor market is unprecedented: according to the UN Refugee Agency, about 5.8-5.9 million Ukrainians are abroad, of which 5.2 million are in European countries. The base scenario of the National Bank of Ukraine does not foresee a mass return of the population in the near future, predicting a further outflow of 200,000 people in 2025–2026. In addition, mobilization and new travel rules for youth have created an additional vacuum in the market.
For the industrial sector, this crisis is taking on an existential character. According to forecasts by the State Employment Service and the Ministry of Economy, by 2036 the need for new workers will increase by 1.24 million people, of which almost 400,000 will be needed specifically in the manufacturing industry. Already in 2026, there is a severe lack of machine operators, turners, millers, electric and gas welders, and fitters. Classic recruiting tools have completely lost their effectiveness. According to the NBU, in December 2025, there was an average of only 1.8 candidates per vacancy, and in critical technical areas, supply was practically zero. The ideal candidate for the position of a Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine operator today is either unavailable, or their salary expectations make hiring them economically unviable for many civilian enterprises.
The situation is complicated by the unprecedented growth of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex (MIC), whose production volumes soared from $1 billion in 2022 to an estimated $12 billion in 2025. State and private defense enterprises are aggressively vacuuming the market, offering vacancies for CNC machine operators of the 4th-5th grades, boring turners, and design engineers, backing these offers with reliable reservation from mobilization. At the end of 2025 alone, almost 700 offers from more than 70 enterprises were posted in the MIC category. In this new reality, where 54% of companies plan to expand their staff despite all difficulties, retaining existing highly qualified CNC operators through corporate culture transformation becomes the only reliable mechanism for ensuring uninterrupted workshop operation.







